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Iran’s Latest Investment Pledge Raises Questions in Tajikistan

On February 23, Tajikistan’s Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MEDT) announced that a group of Iranian companies had agreed to build an industrial town in the country. According to the ministry, the massive project will entail the construction of about 50 industrial enterprises including aluminum, cotton, and fruit processing plants, in Rudaki district near the Tajik capital Dushanbe. Experts suggest that the remaining enterprises might include plants producing construction materials, solar panels, power transformers, electricity usage meters, and light bulbs. The authorities expect that Tajikistan’s first industrial town will increase the country’s exports, while also reducing imports and creating about 20,000 new jobs.

The announcement made during a three-day investment forum in Dushanbe was very short on details and, therefore, raised a number of questions. First, there is no indication of when the construction of the industrial town is expected to begin. According to the MEDT, Iranian experts still have to complete a feasibility assessment and the technical documentation. Once these are finalized, the construction phase is expected to take about three years.

Second, the authorities have not indicated where the resources required to implement the large-scale project will come from. Tajik experts estimate that the project will cost over US$ 2 billion. The government of Tajikistan which struggles to find resources to build the giant Rogun dam and has to rely on the international financial institutions (IFIs) in financing a large part of its social sector needs is unlikely to take on a major co-investor role. The government’s role will most probably be limited to enacting favorable legislation to improve the economic feasibility of the project and building part of the related infrastructure. Other major donors in the country, including Russia, China, and the IFIs, are also unlikely to co-sponsor an Iranian-led investment project. Therefore, if Iranian companies are serious about the project, they would effectively have to provide all of the funding.
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Filed under Industry, Tajik-Iranian relations, Tajikistan